(퍼옴) 월요일부터 볼만할께다.

월요일부터 볼만할께다.

 

미국에서 이미 짜고 치는 고스톱 판을 만드는 애들이 홀랑 다 발라 먹겠다고 모두 경고를 하고 있는데도  

집거쥐 빚쟁이 쉐끼들의 천지인 개썅망국 닥대가리 정부는 그게 아니라고 박박 우기는 객기랄까?ㅋㅋㅋ

 

더 욱낀건 뉴욕타임스 인터넷판 기사까지 꼼꼼하게 닥정부 재경부? 공무원 쉐끼가 댓글을 달아놨네?ㅋㅋㅋ 

아니 애초에 작정을 하고 싹 발라 먹겠다는 놈들이 짜고 계획까지 해서 빚을 빌려주고 이번에는 니덜 뒤져보라고  

싹 걷어가겠다는데 어벙이 닥정부가 무슨 방법이 있남?ㅋㅋㅋ 있긴 있는건가?ㅋㅋㅋ 조또 없잖아?ㅋㅋㅋ

 

영어 이해가 가능한 사람들은 직접 읽어보시라! 개썅망국 언론은 유리한 내용만 짜깁기 편집을 하니?ㅋㅋㅋ 

문제의 막장 버블을 만든 버냉키는 1월 31일 설날에 연준 의장을 이미 그만 뒀다.ㅋㅋㅋ 판세가 싹 바꼈어!ㅉㅉㅉ

 

아마 월요일부터 볼만할께다. 개썅망국 이번에도 발려먹게 또 딱 찍혔네?ㅉㅉㅉ 

상황이 이런데도 아직도 아파트 제목만 달린 글을 읽는 정신병자 같은 쉐끼들이 제일 한심해 보인다니까?ㅉㅉㅉ 

개썅망국의 한심한 어벙이들이 좋아하는 조선일보는 예전에도 이런 쌩구라질 미췬 질알이었었다.ㅋㅋㅋ  

 

 

 

‘버냉키 버블’의 여파로 한국 등 신흥국 시장에 위기가 올 수 있다는 경고가 제기됐다. 뉴욕타임스(NYT) 인터넷판은 21일(현지시간) 터키 이스탄불의 초고층 빌딩인 ‘사파이어 타워’를 예로 들면서 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 양적완화 축소 이후 발생할 수 있는 신흥국의 위기를 지적했다.

이에 따르면 ‘사파이어 타워’는 미국 연준과 주요 선진국 중앙은행들의 양적완화와 초저금리 정책으로 늘어난 저금리의 달러를 이용해 세워졌다. 터키뿐만 아니라 많은 신흥국은 그동안 낮은 금리의 달러 표시 부채를 이용해 투자해왔다.

NYT는 이런 달러 표시 부채가 터키뿐 아니라 브라질, 인도를 포함한 한국에도 대거 유입됐다고 지적했다. 그러나 벤 버냉키 FRB 의장이 최근 양적완화 축소 방침을 밝히면서 신흥국 금융시장은 불안한 움직임을 보이고 있다. 신흥국 통화 가치와 주가가 급락세를 보인 것이다.

NYT는 “모든 전문가가 이런 시각을 가진 것은 아니지만 낙관주의자들 사이에서도 터키와 브라질, 인도, 한국 등에서 달러 표시 부채가 급격하게 늘어난 데 대해 우려하고 있다”고 전했다.

한국 정부는 그러나 다른 아시아 신흥국과 달리 ‘한국은 안정적’으로 평가하고 있다. 기획재정부는 보고서를 통해 “한국은 다른 아시아 신흥국보다 환율, 주가, 신용부도스와프(CDS) 프리미엄, 외국인 자금 유출입 측면에서 안정적인 모습”이라고 강조했다.

 

 

In a city where skyscrapers sprout like weeds, none grew as high as the Sapphire tower in Istanbul.

Today, it stands as a symbol of how far the mighty may fall.

 

Like a vast majority of new buildings that have blanketed the Istanbul hills in recent years, the Sapphire — at 856 feet it is the tallest in Turkey and among the loftiest in Europe — was built on the back of cheap loans, in dollars, that have flooded Turkey and other fast-growing markets like Brazil, India and South Korea. The money began to flow when the Federal Reserve and other major central banks cut interest rates to the bone in 2009 and cranked up the printing presses in a bid to spur recovery in the United States and other advanced industrial nations.

       

But now, with expectations mounting that the Federal Reserve, led by its departing chairman Ben S. Bernanke, may soon begin to tighten its monetary spigot, Istanbul’s skyline could well be a harbinger of an emerging-market bust brought on by unpaid loans, weakening currencies, and, eventually, the possible failure of developers and banks.

 

This week, stocks and currencies in several developing Asian markets, including India, Indonesia and Thailand, have been hit hard. Global investors continued to withdraw funds from emerging markets, as interest rates edge up in anticipation of the Fed’s move to reduce its stimulus efforts in the United States. Indonesia’s benchmark index, which fell 5 percent on Monday, dropped 3.2 percent more on Tuesday. India’s stock market fell 0.3 percent after sliding 5.6 percent in the previous two trading sessions.

      

Some analysts see it as the markets reacting to an end — real or perceived — of the Bernanke boom. “What we are witnessing is a huge bubble, a Bernanke bubble if you will,” said Tim Lee of Pi Economics, an independent consultancy based in Greenwich, Conn.

 

Not everybody is as alarmed as Mr. Lee. Still, 16 years after emerging markets in Asia imploded after local currencies collapsed, even optimists are starting to grow nervous over the rapid accumulation of dollar-denominated debt not just in Turkey but in other now-struggling economies like Brazil, India and South Korea.

As it turned out, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s largess were not so much in the developed world, but among the politically connected elite in emerging nations like Turkey, where vanity towers, glitzy shopping malls and even grander projects to come — a third bridge across the Bosporus and a vast new airport — have become representative of the nation’s new dynamism, economic as well as geopolitical.

What these elites have so far ignored, Mr. Lee warns, is that their obligations carry with them a significant and pressing danger: currency risk.

      

Unlike the risky loans made to subprime borrowers in the United States or Irish real estate developers in the euro zone, dollar debts taken on by companies erecting skyscrapers in Istanbul, manufacturing steel in India and prospecting for oil in Brazil, need to be largely paid back in dollars by entities that earn most of their revenues in their home currency.

      

When the Turkish lira or the rupee in India was strong — as these currencies were until recently — local companies had every incentive to borrow in dollars at comparatively lower interest rates.

 

But when local currencies start to weaken, in line with diminished economic prospects, then the effect is twofold: paying off dollar loans becomes more costly for the borrower, and the lender becomes increasingly skittish about his exposure to a fragile currency and may move to reduce or even slash credit lines.

While Brazil has the largest amount of dollar loans outstanding at $287 billion, few countries have relied on this source of money as much as Turkey, where dollar loans of around $172 billion represent 22 percent of the overall economy.

 

In recent months, the Turkish lira has lost 4.5 percent of its value against the dollar. Adding to this, protests have hit Istanbul’s main public square over an unpopular building sponsored by a developer with close political and cultural ties to the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

 

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a dollar-lira rate of 2.2, representing a 15 percent mini-de-valuation from the current level of 1.95. “The Turkish economic miracle was built on liquidity and a massive appreciation of the Turkish lira,” said Atilla Yesilada, an economist at Global Source partners in Istanbul, who has lived through Turkey’s previous financial crashes in 1994 and 2001.

 

These loans — many of them relatively short term — also highlight a recurring characteristic of the emerging-market growth boom: the powerful nexus between ambitious governments eager to promote high-profile investments and politically connected business groups ready to take on such projects.

 

The Sapphire tower in Turkey is a perfect example in this regard.

 

The 54-floor tower, which received a ceremonial baptism from Prime Minister Erdogan when it opened in early 2011, is the signature property of the Kiler Group, one of the many construction-themed conglomerates that have achieved extraordinary success since Mr. Erdogan came to power in 2003. Like Mr. Erdogan, whose family comes from the northern Black Sea region, these businessmen hail from Turkey’s conservative Islamist provinces.

 

According to regulatory filings, 154 million liras of the group’s total 164 million liras in debt is denominated in dollars — about $79 million using current exchange rates. Of that figure, $25 million is related to the Sapphire tower, company officials say. Most of the group’s debt is short term, and in a reflection of the project’s risk, regulatory doc-uments show that the cash generated by the property goes directly to the project’s primary creditor, Akbank, the fourth-largest bank in Turkey.

 

Given the differential between dollar loans at 6.5 percent and lira credit costing 11.5 percent, it was no surprise that the Kiler Group and others chose to borrow in dollars. The company, in its most recent filings, acknowledged this risk: if the American dollar gains 10 percent against the Turkish currency, the loss to the company would be 11.8 million Turkish liras.

 

According to Rasim Kaan Aytogu, chief financial officer for the Kiler Group, the Sapphire tower’s share of that total is $25 million. He contends that because the project books its revenue in dollars it is not exposed to currency fluctuations. He also says that demand for apartment units is strong, with 66 percent of them sold.

“This is a unique property in all of Europe,” he said. “And it is becoming a travel destination.”

 

But Turkish real estate experts say that sales of the apartments, which cost from $1 million to $10 million, have lagged and that the tower does not have the prestige of rival properties, including towers built by Trump and Zorlu. And according to company filings, revenue from visitors ogling the view from the tower’s observation deck have undershot targets from the outset.

 

The Kilers are not alone in their ability to make a big splash in Istanbul by deploying dollar debt and political muscle.

 

Even more influential has been the Kalyon Group, another real estate conglomerate with close ties to Mr. Erdogan. Kalyon is the main developer behind Mr. Erdogan’s controversial effort to build a replica of Ottoman-era army barracks as a shopping mall near Taksim Square.

 

As troubles were beginning to brew in Turkey, the leader of the Kalyon Group, Cemal Kalyoncu, remained confident that nothing would change. Asked in an interview with a local paper how the consortium of companies that won the tender for the airport would obtain the money, Mr. Kalyoncu said the group would look for loans outside Turkey.

 

“Financing this should be no problem at all,” he said.